Tejashwi Yadav at an election rally Masaurhi in Patna. (PTI Picture)
All bets are off in what’s seen as a dead-heat election, with many nonetheless giving CM Nitish Kumar an opportunity to battle again three phrases of anti-incumbency. However for Tejashwi Prasad Yadav and the RJD, it is a ballot that may mark the emergence of the younger man from the larger-than-life shadow of his father Lalu Prasad.
If crowds at rallies may win elections, Tejashwi is the clear winner. Nearly each rally of his has drawn enormous crowds of younger males who comply with him in a wave to the stage and cheer wildly as he speaks. And when he talks of his oft-repeated promise of 10 lakh authorities jobs, the group is nearly delirious. Below Tejashwi, the RJD has clearly travelled removed from its days in 2017, when it reportedly put up a photoshopped {photograph} of its Gandhi Maidan rally to magnify the numbers.
Whereas Tejashwi is now the Mahagathbandhan’s CM nominee, it wasn’t at all times this clear. Within the alliance’s earlier type, the Congress, RLSP’s Upendra Kushwaha and HAM (S)’s Jitan Ram Manjhi at all times spoke of “collective management”.
However as soon as Kushwaha and Manjhi walked out, Tejashwi asserted his place, leaving the Congress with little selection however to just accept him because the alliance’s chief.
The Left events that make up the remainder of the Mahagathbandhan — CPI, CPI(ML) and CPI(M) — are solely too comfortable to let Tejashwi take centrestage.
Whereas at one stage, CPI’s Kanhaiya Kumar was seen as a contender for the youth votes, that too has been laid to relaxation with the previous JNUSU president conceding house to Tejashwi.
But, his critics have been dismissive of Tejashwi’s recognition, saying crowds at rallies are not any approach to choose a winner. Senior BJP chief and Union Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad has reminded folks of the 2010 polls when Lalu drew enormous crows however the RJD was diminished to 23 seats.
Learn | Tejashwi Yadav: People of Bihar now finally feel heard
But, what’s past doubt is that in a state that’s the primary to go to vote amidst a pandemic that has inflicted lack of lives and livelihood, Tejashwi has hit the best chord by tapping into the frustration with Nitish and the notion that the CM did little as migrants walked again residence and later, did little to cease them as they went again to their workplaces.
It’s this level that he seeks to drive residence by saying that he’ll signal on his promise of jobs the day be turns into chief minister.
It’s not a promise he has pulled out from skinny air, insist RJD leaders. “After we discovered there have been 4.5 lakh pending vacancies within the Bihar authorities and have to create one other 5.5 lakh vacancies to match the nationwide common, we got here up with the thought of 10 lakh jobs. Now the BJP is attempting to repeat us,” says one among them.
These watching Tejashwi say he’s studying quick. As an illustration, when Nitish took potshots at Lalu’s household measurement, saying, “They’ve eight-nine kids,” Tejashwi, the eighth of Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi’s 9 kids, retorted that the CM “has insulted even PM Narendra Modi who has 5 siblings”. In addition to, his “thake gaye Nitish” taunt has summarised the overall sense of fatigue towards the Nitish administration.
He additionally learnt quick that his father’s slogan of “secularism and social justice” wasn’t enthusing the post-Mandal, post-Babri technology, and that he wanted a contemporary slogan. He didn’t must look far — he took the “improvement” theme out of Nitish’s camp and blended it with the best dose of populism.
In addition to the supply of presidency jobs, he has been promising pay parity to over 5 lakh contract academics. Tejashwi has additionally assured aanganwadi and ASHA employees of a increase in wage.
It’s this group that’s cheering him on at his rallies, says Kishore Jaiswal, a Munger-based water conservationist. “In addition to his Muslim-Yadav votebase, the group at his rallies embrace youth aspiring for jobs and potential benefiaries of his polls guarantees,” he says.
For now, Tejashwi has additionally managed to say his place inside his family. With eldest sibling Misa Bharati mollified with a Rajya Sabha berth, the household has additionally managed to deal with elder brother Tej Pratap Yadav extra diplomatically than they did through the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, when he had turned a insurgent.
Whereas all of this make Tejashwi seem like the indeniable challenger, his critics say his rise is much less to his credit score and owes extra to the disarray within the NDA, with the LJP strolling out and the BJP and JD(U) not sharing the perfect of ties.
Not too way back, when Patna witnessed its worst-ever waterlogging in 2019, Tejashwi had been criticised for being lacking in motion. Even firstly of the lockdown, as migrants started strolling again, Tejashwi put up no opposition.
However because the rumblings within the NDA grew, Tejashwi obtained a foot within the door.
The LJP is now preventing on 143 seats, most of those towards the JD(U). If it finally ends up chopping into the JD(U) votes, the RJD may find yourself with greater than a preventing likelihood in a variety of seats.
“Chirag se Lanka hello nahi jali Ayodhya ko bhi jalne ka khatra hai (Chirag Paswan will not be solely hurting JD(U) but in addition BJP). He’ll find yourself serving to RJD,” says Sasaram voter Alok Kumar.
But, will it’s sufficient for the RJD to topple Nitish? For him to do this, he must convey extra to the desk than the occasion’s core M-Y votes.
Sanjay Kumar, director of the Centre for Research of Social Sciences, explains, “In addition to his core votes, he could get a piece of youth and EBC votes and a few splinters from the NDA’s core constituencies. However its greatest efficiency was when it obtained over 25 per cent votes within the 2005 Meeting polls. With Congress and Left, that will contact 34-35 per cent. However what if the NDA nonetheless manages 37-38 per cent? It is vitally troublesome to foretell on the premise of social maths alone. It’s the most advanced election to make out.”
© The Indian Specific (P) Ltd
